This alert expired on 18 July 2026 at 18:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 79th strongest of the 111 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. One more was recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 1:46PM EDT until July 18 at 2:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 95,636 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- June 14, 2026 · score 43 · 6.6 km
- July 22, 2026 · score 39 · 8.7 km
- August 7, 2026 · score 39 · 9.9 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 39 out of 100, at 80 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 39 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 80% |
| Coordinates | 38.7980, -78.0950 |
| Nearest City | Front Royal (16 km) |
| Population Exposed | 95.6K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-18T17:46:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6b0a9fcffd765065ae981414a67d4a23 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Culpeper, VA; Greene, VA; Madison, VA; Orange, VA; Clarke, VA; Frederick, VA; City of Winchester, VA; Berkeley, WV; Jefferson, WV |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 1:46PM EDT until July 18 at 2:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-07-18T14:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6b0a9fcffd765065ae981414a67d4a23301da658.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.141565804abb11ceecf16da78af79d29f8793c97.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 39/100, near Front Royal (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.